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September 08, 2010 4:19:24 PM PST

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Articles and Commentary

It's Always Darkest Before the Dawn
By Peter Degraaf
August 22, 2007

The credit problems in the housing market are causing even a commodity as scarce as silver to drop in price. This is primarily because hedge fund managers, who need cash to meet urgent needs, (like margin calls), always sell the item that is the most liquid and loses them the least amount of money. With all the liquidation in silver that has gone on during the past few weeks, the COT report this Friday is expected to be very bullish. It was already bullish last Friday.

DANI's 48 silver stocks indicator, last Friday read 11.9 , just 0.1 away from issuing the first buy signal in almost a year.

SILVER TODAY IS AN ABSOLUTE BARGAIN!

Charts courtesy of stockcharts.com.



Featured is the six-year silver chart. The colored arrows draw your attention to the oversold conditions that occur in silver every so often. Remember the Golden Rule: During a bull market, every dip near or below the 200DMA (rising red line on the chart), is an opportunity to buy.

Yesterday marked the furthest that the silver price has fallen below the 200DMA in six years! (See blue arrows). Every set of three arrows draws your attention to a spot where price fell below the 200DMA while the RSI at top of the chart, and MACD at the bottom of the chart were in oversold positions.

The purple, green and black arrows mark the beginning point of multi-month advances. Unless you think this is 1929, you are probably looking at the next low point before the next multi-month advance. In the event that silver drops even lower than yesterdays $11.44, it will just increase the extent of this incredible investment opportunity.



Featured is the gold to silver ratio chart going back five years. The silver chart is at the bottom for comparison. The colored arrows point to spots where the ratio moved more than ten percent above the 200DMA. The blue arrow points to yesterday's ratio at 57. As of yesterday's close the ratio chart was almost 15% above the 200D. This is the highest reading in five years. The purple, black and green arrows point to occasions were readings were not even that high, then preceded multi-month rising trends in the silver price (see bottom of chart).

"History does not always repeat - but it often rhymes."
    - Mark Twain



Featured is the HUI index of unhedged mining shares, with the gold chart at the bottom. The vertical green lines point to the spots where the RSI (top of chart) turned up, while the HUI was trading below the 200DMA. It also marked a turning point for gold. The RSI has bottomed at 30 once more. The HUI is issuing a buy signal today, by rising above the low point in the cycle (blue arrow).

If we're not sitting on the bottom here, for silver as well as gold, we're very close!

Happy trading!


DISCLAIMER: Please do your own due diligence. I am NOT responsible for your trading decisions.


PETER DEGRAAF is an online stock trader with over 50 years of investing experience. He sends out a weekly e-mail alert to his subscribers. For a 60 day free trial contact him at itiswell@cogeco.ca or visit his website at www.pdegraaf.com.


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