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Articles and Commentary

Gold and the US Dollar at Key Pivot Points
By Chris Vermeulen
August 16, 2010

Last week was exciting as investments rocketed higher or tanked. We saw gold and the US dollar pop while equities dropped sharply with heavy volume. Wednesday the market went into free-fall mode sending traders and investors running for the door. This was obvious from looking at the large percent drop coupled with heavy selling. That day the NYSE showed panic selling with 37 shares sold for every 1 share purchased meaning pure panic. Currently the price of gold is trading somewhat at the opposite extremes seen last week.

GLD - Gold ETF Trading Signals
This 60-minute chart shows gold getting hit hard on Wednesday morning. Investors and traders around the globe were closing out positions and moving to cash. This high volume dumping of positions pulled virtually all investments lower and was the first tip-off that the market was in panic mode.

One the dust settled and investor's regrouped we saw money surge back into gold creating a nice pop the following day. The problem I see is that gold is now trading at a key resistance level when reviewing the daily chart. And if you take a look at the 60-minute chart below you can see the price of gold sold down in the morning on August 13th and drifted up into the close on Friday forming a bearish wedge. Also there was some very strong selling just before the market closed which is also a concern.


US Dollar Index
US dollar put in a huge bounce last week after testing is 61.8% Fib retracement level from the 2009 December low. The strong bounce has pushed the dollar up to a key resistance level which happens to be 38.2% Fib retracement level from both the December up trend and the recent sell off. I figure this will hold the dollar down for a few days easing the pressure on oil and equities.


Conclusion:
I feel the dollar and gold will have some profit taking and trade sideways or down at the beginning of the week. After that it looks as though the dollar and gold will rally.

If you would like to receive my trading analysis and signals complete with entry, targets and protective stops please visit my website at: http://www.TheGoldAndOilGuy.com.


TheGoldAndOilGuy.com is owned and run by me (Chris Vermeulen), an individual gold trading specialist. After sharing my gold analysis with friends, traders and financial advisors, I decided to make TheGoldAndOilGuy.com my full time job in 2003. This service was designed from the ground up to help individual traders who want to focus on consistent, accurate and profitable trades. Over the past ten years my strategy has been refined to one golden trading vehicle which has an almost 100% accuracy. The GLD (DGP and DZZ) gold exchange traded funds are now the most accurate trading vehicle I have seen, so it's my vehicle of choice. Members of TheGoldAndOilGuy.com not only get to trade my signals, but see my live trading charts and ask me all the questions they wish. My goal is for all of us to make money and have fun in life.


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