Current Market Rates Per Ounce
May 17, 2012 3:38:45 PM PST
| USD $ | CAD $ | |
| Gold (AU): | 1,573.72 | 1,603.78 |
| Silver (AG): | 27.99 | 28.52 |
| Platinum (PT): | 1,448.00 | 1,475.66 |
| Palladium (PD): | 601.50 | 612.99 |
| USD-CAD Exchange Rate: | 1.019 | |
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Gold Headed to $5,000 per Ounce?
By Willem Weytjens
June 24, 2011
After writing an article about the platinum-to-gold ratio, I decided to do more with the excel sheet, like calculating correlations and plotting the price charts for example. In this article I will just focus on the gold price. Here we go, the monthly average gold price since January 1968:
It looks a bit bubbly, right? If you think this looks like a bubble, then please have a look at this log-scaled chart, which looks far from bubbly:
The thing I observed was that the price action in gold from early 2000 until today was similar to the price action from 1968 until April 1979. Let me show you:
One might argue that the price action from 1972 until 1975 is not similar. I agree. However, the correlation between the gold price from 1968 until 1979 and the gold price from early 2000 until today is an amazing 89,65%.
What else did I notice? That the price action from November 1975 until April 1979 is almost exactly the same as the price action from January 2008 until today. To show you, here is a chart:
If this monthly chart was not convincing enough, here is a weekly chart:
How high do you think the correlation between both periods is (measured on a monthly basis)? That's right, an astonishing 97,83%! Don't believe me? Here is the Excel worksheet I used, with data from Kitco.com.
So what would be a price target for gold, based on the 1981 intraday high of $873 per ounce if the correlation would hold? That's right, $5,000 per ounce:
Now you have another way to look at Mr. Armstrong's prediction of $5,000 gold.
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