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Articles and Commentary

Gold Heading to $2,350 after Fourth-Wave Consolidation
By David A. Banister, MarketTrendForecast
September 14, 2011


In my most recent forecasts I've discussed a major correction in gold and it dropped $208 within three days of that forecast. Last week I wrote about further consolidation being required in what I'm seeing as a either 4th wave likely "triangle" pattern that will consolidate the 34 month run from $681 to $1910 into August of this year, or a 3-wave "A B C" pattern. We are right now in some form of C wave. It's just a matter now of confirming if we are going to get a "D and E" wave to follow or the C wave drops lower before we bottom.

A triangle pattern serves to let the "economics of the security" catch up with the prior large movement upwards in price. In essence, the crowd behavior pushed the price of gold a bit too high too fast and this consolidation pattern lets the fundamentals catch up to price action. We had a parabolic move and those always end badly to the downside. The $208 drop in three days is a typical reaction to a spike run like that. I had been forecasting what I call a "wave 3" top and was looking for a multi-week or multi-month consolidation pattern before gold could move higher.

Let's examine what that triangle projection may look like. They take the form of five waves, or what we can call ABCDE in a pattern. The biggest drop is always the A wave and that was 1910 to 1702 in three days or less. The next biggest drop is the C Wave and that was 1920 to 1793, noting it was a Fibonacci 61.8% drop relative to the A wave. In other words, each successive wave down in the 5-wave triangle is smaller. This is due to the sentiment finally shifting and the trading patterns moving from people chasing the hot sector or stock or metal, to the long term investors accumulating the dips.

If we end up consolidating in a triangle then gold should end up looking something like the below pattern with a target of $2,350 per ounce many months out:


The other pattern we are watching for at TMTF is the ABC correction pattern. We had the A wave down to 1702, which corrected 50% of the move from 1480-1910 in three days. Rarely do you get a major move down like that and not get some type of re-test of that low, but because the fundamentals for gold are strong and getting stronger, we are favoring the triangle pattern still as most likely. With that said, there is a fat and juicy gap sitting in the chart around 1660 on gold and dropping down there is what a lot of traders are watching. If that were to fulfill then we will see an ABC correction ending around $1643 and then gold will begin another multi-month rally to new highs:


At TheMarketTrendForecast.com I teach people my crowd behavioral methodologies and give them reliable forecasts in advance so they can be prepared with their investments. Consider working with us and following the SP500, silver, and gold by going to www.MarketTrendForecast.com. You can take advantage of a 33% discount over the next 48 hours as well.


David A. Banister
Chief Investment Strategist and Founder
MarketTrendForecast.com


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